Best FPL Defenders 2026/27: Tarkowski Over the £4.0m Punts

Defence is where a GW1 squad is really decided, and the best FPL defenders for 2026/27 are not where the ownership is. Ranked on projected points over the opening six gameweeks, our two best value defenders in the game play in the same back four, at Everton, on a combined 11.7 per cent ownership.

The crowd has gone to both extremes instead: £8.0m at Arsenal, or £4.0m at a promoted side. Projections below are our own, snapshot 9 August 2026, and every price and ownership figure is official FPL data pulled the same day.

Gabriel (£8.0m), Arsenal

Fixtures: Coventry (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H), Sunderland (A), Brighton (A), Leeds (H)

Gabriel projects 30.1 points across the opening six, the highest of any defender and third of any player on our board behind Haaland and Bruno Fernandes. That is not a fixture accident. Arsenal are the best defensive team in our own fixture ratings over the window, conceding 5.12 expected goals with a 43 per cent clean sheet chance a game, both league bests.

Gameweek 1 is the extreme version. Arsenal at home to Coventry carries a 56 per cent clean sheet chance, the highest single-game number of the round, and Gabriel's 5.81 projected points beat every midfielder in the game bar Fernandes.

He is also the safest bet in the round on minutes: our chance of him playing none of Gameweek 1 is 7.5 per cent, the lowest of any outfield player on our board. Last season he returned 209 points at 6.5 a game in 2,750 minutes.

The bottom line is unfashionable. Arsenal have two flagged defenders, Saliba (back) and Timber (groin), both with no return date on official FPL data, so Gabriel is the only Arsenal defender you can buy without guessing at a team sheet. At 26.6 per cent owned he is the most expensive defender in the game and still the correct expensive defender.

Tarkowski (£6.0m), Everton

Fixtures: Crystal Palace (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester United (H), Tottenham (A), Ipswich (H), Hull (A)

Tarkowski projects 23.0 over the six, second among defenders, and he does it at 3.83 points per million against Gabriel's 3.76. His 4.53 in Gameweek 1 is the second-best number of any defender in the round.

Everton's run is not glamorous and it does not need to be. They are seventh best defensively in our ratings, 7.70 expected goals against with a 29 per cent clean sheet chance a game, and the shape improves later: 41 per cent at home to Ipswich in Gameweek 5, 33 per cent away at Hull in Gameweek 6.

Then there is the boring part that wins mini-leagues. He played 3,330 minutes last season for 170 points at 4.6 a game, which is close to an unrotated centre-back, and the defensive contribution mechanism rewards exactly that profile.

Fewer than one in 10 managers own him, at 9.8 per cent. He is the best value defender you can start in Gameweek 1 without a fitness question attached.

Branthwaite (£5.5m), Everton

Fixtures: as Tarkowski

Branthwaite projects 21.2 over the six, which is 3.85 points per million, the best of any defender in the game. He is 1.9 per cent owned, and the reason is not a secret.

Hamstring surgery ended his 2025/26 season in April, and he finished it on 32 points from 678 minutes. He returned for 45 minutes at Bolton in pre-season after being held out of the Dundee friendly as a precaution, with full fitness targeted for the Palace opener on 22 August.

Our number puts his chance of no Gameweek 1 minutes at 12.8 per cent, which is in line with other starting centre-backs rather than a flag. That gap between his price and his projection is the risk, priced.

I would take him as the fifth defender ahead of any £4.0m name, and I would check the Friday team news before starting him.

Virgil (£6.5m), Liverpool

Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Ipswich (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Manchester City (H)

Virgil projects 22.3 over the six at 16.5 per cent ownership, off 3,420 minutes and 175 points last season. The total is fine. The shape is the point.

His projection runs 3.61, 4.28, 4.29, 3.93, 3.38, 2.85, because Liverpool's two worst defensive fixtures of the window are the first and the last: away at Newcastle in Gameweek 1 (a 23 per cent clean sheet chance) and at home to City in Gameweek 6 (21 per cent).

However, own him if you like the middle of that run. Just do not make him the defender you plan the opening round around.

The £4.0m trap

This is where the ownership actually sits. Diop is 18.9 per cent owned at £4.0m, van Ewijk 15.8 per cent and Thomas 8.7 per cent, the last two both Coventry players with no Premier League minutes in last season's data.

Our ratings are brutal about that end of the league. Coventry concede 11.35 expected goals over the opening six with a 17 per cent clean sheet chance a game, the worst in the division. Hull are on 10.42 and 19 per cent, Ipswich 10.12 and 20 per cent. Not one defender from the three promoted sides reaches our top 40 for the window.

As a fourth or fifth slot that never starts, fine. As a defender you actually field, it is a bet that the least likely clean sheet in the league happens anyway.

The cheap Arsenal route is the same bet wearing better clothes. Mosquera is 15.3 per cent owned at £5.5m off 986 minutes and 40 points last season. Buying him is a wager on a team sheet, not on Arsenal's 43 per cent clean sheets.

The most-owned back line in the game is City's, and our board has none of it

Guéhi at £6.0m is 23.3 per cent owned and O'Reilly at £6.5m is 22.4 per cent, so 45.7 percentage points of ownership sit on one defence. City's fixtures deserve it: 6.42 expected goals against and a 36 per cent clean sheet chance, second only to Arsenal.

Neither player reaches our top 40 over the opening six. With seven City defenders priced at £5.5m or above, the projections are not pricing the fixtures, they are pricing which three of the seven start. That is a rotation tax, and it is the one place this season where excellent fixtures and a sensible price still do not add up.

The defender board, GW1 to GW6

Read the last two columns together rather than either alone. Gabriel wins on raw points by nearly seven, which is most of a good captaincy week, and loses on efficiency to two players whose combined ownership is 11.7 per cent. If your squad has a hole at the top of the pitch, the Everton pair is how you fund it. If it does not, paying up for the best defence in the league is not a mistake.

What would change this call

A Branthwaite setback in the final pre-season week removes him from the argument entirely, and Everton's soft middle (21, 22 and 22 per cent clean sheet chances in Gameweeks 2 to 4) means one Everton defender is the safer expression of this than two. If you are only taking one, take Tarkowski.

FAQ

Who is the best cheap FPL defender for 2026/27? On our projections, Branthwaite at £5.5m, at 3.85 points per million over the opening six. He is 1.9 per cent owned because he is returning from hamstring surgery, so check the Friday team news before starting him. If you want the same fixtures without the fitness question, Tarkowski at £6.0m is 23.0 points.

Is Gabriel worth £8.0m in FPL? Yes, on these numbers. He projects 30.1 over the opening six, nearly seven more than any other defender, and Arsenal have the league's best defensive run at a 43 per cent clean sheet chance a game. With Saliba and Timber both flagged, he is also the least ambiguous Arsenal pick.

Do FPL defenders still get defensive contribution points in 2026/27? Yes, and the thresholds are unchanged from last season: a defender reaching 10 combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles in a match scores two points, capped at two per match. It is worth more to high-volume centre-backs than to attacking full-backs.

Every projection here is on the free predicted points table, updated daily, no signup, so you can check the numbers rather than take my word for them. If you want to see how The Algorithm builds a defence into a full squad, the demo is a real plan. Related reading: where the £1.5m goes in goal and why the GW1 captaincy gap is 0.15 points.