Best FPL Forwards 2026/27: Calvert-Lewin Over João Pedro

The best FPL forwards for 2026/27 are not hard to rank. Working out what to pay for them is harder, because the distance between first and second is bigger than the distance between second and fifteenth.

The Algorithm's projections for the opening six gameweeks, as of 10 August 2026, describe a position with one premium and then a flat plain below it. Every figure here is expected points, already discounted for the chance a player does not appear, and you can check all of it on the free predicted points table.

The forward board for the opening six gameweeks

Three things fall out of that table. Haaland's lead over the second-best forward in the game is 10.4 points, while second down to fourteenth spans 8.4. The points per million column runs almost exactly backwards to the projection column, with Haaland last of the eight and Calvert-Lewin first. And ownership tracks neither: 55.4 per cent of managers own the fourth name on the list, 2.4 per cent own the sixth.

Erling Haaland (£15.5m), Man City

Fixtures: Bournemouth (H), Crystal Palace (A), Coventry (H)

Haaland projects 6.68 in Gameweek 1 at home to Bournemouth, the highest single-week figure of any player in the game. City's opener carries 2.45 goals expected, and his opening three is the strongest attacking block available anywhere.

Last season he finished on 239 points from 2,953 minutes with 25.5 xG. Nobody else in the position has a number like that to wave at you.

The case against is arithmetic rather than doubt. At £15.5m he returns 2.35 points per million over the opening six, the worst of these eight, and that 10.4-point lead costs £6.5m more than Isak. Spend it here and the squeeze lands on your midfield, which is where we came out in our Haaland piece.

Verdict: the best forward in the game and the most expensive way to be right. At 73.9 per cent owned this is a structure decision, not a differential.

Alexander Isak (£9.0m), Liverpool

Fixtures: Newcastle (A), Nott'm Forest (H), Ipswich (A)

Isak is second on the board at 26.0 and his run climbs rather than fades: 4.26 in Gameweek 1 away at Newcastle, then 4.76 and 4.78. Liverpool project 1.91 goals at Newcastle and, as it stands, more than 2.2 in each of the two after that.

Then the honest caveat, and it is the biggest one on this page. Isak played 694 minutes last season for 41 points and 2.59 xG. That is the thinnest evidence base of any forward in this top eight, and £9.0m is real money to commit against it.

Verdict: the projection likes him more than the record does. At 12.8 per cent owned he is the differential premium, with the risk that word implies.

Watkins and João Pedro: the £0.5m that goes the wrong way

Fixtures, Watkins: Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Hull (A) Fixtures, João Pedro: Fulham (A), Brighton (H), Arsenal (A)

Watkins projects 23.2 over the opening six at £8.0m. João Pedro projects 22.5 at £7.5m. Half a million pounds for seven tenths of a point is a coin flip.

Ownership is not a coin flip. 55.4 per cent own João Pedro against 12.7 per cent on Watkins, a gap of 42.7 percentage points on two players the projections separate by less than a single point.

Chelsea's shape is the awkward part. They project 1.70 at Fulham and 1.95 at home to Brighton, then 0.92 away at Arsenal, and João Pedro's Gameweek 3 figure drops to 2.72, his floor for the window. Villa are the mirror image: a thin opener at Brighton, then Watkins' best week of the six in Gameweek 3 on 4.42.

Last season's underlying numbers lean the same way, narrowly. Watkins posted 15.4 xG in 2,833 minutes, João Pedro 14.91 in 2,658.

Verdict: Watkins is the better version of the same pick, and almost nobody owns him.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m), Leeds

Fixtures: Nott'm Forest (A), Brentford (H), Brighton (A)

Calvert-Lewin is the best value on the board at 3.40 points per million, and 20.4 over the opening six sits only 2.1 behind João Pedro for £1.5m less.

His last-season numbers are better than his reputation: 142 points and 15.57 xG in 2,721 minutes, more xG than João Pedro managed in fewer minutes than him.

The catch is Leeds' attacking ceiling. They project 1.19 at Forest in Gameweek 1 and, as it stands, no more than 1.48 in either of the two that follow, which is why his window is back loaded. His peaks are 3.74 in Gameweek 2 and 3.93 in Gameweek 5; 2.50 in Gameweek 6 is the dip.

Verdict: the cheapest route to a striker who starts rather than a punt who might. At 24.7 per cent owned you are buying safety, not an edge, and Igor Jesus at the same price and 5.1 per cent owned is the version with fewer neighbours.

The Arsenal trap: Viktor Gyökeres (£7.5m)

Fixtures: Coventry (H), Aston Villa (A), Chelsea (H)

Arsenal at home to Coventry is the biggest fixture in the round at both ends. The Algorithm has Arsenal at 2.68 goals expected and a 61 per cent chance of a clean sheet, the highest figure of any club in Gameweek 1 in both columns.

Gyökeres has the story to match. He is unflagged, he faces a former club, and he told reporters on 10 August that he feels "much, much better than probably last preseason".

The projections are unmoved. He sits tenth among forwards for Gameweek 1 on 3.16, below Igor Jesus and Brobbey, and fourteenth of the eighteen best-projected forwards over the window on 17.6. At £7.5m that is 2.35 points per million, the same ratio as Haaland without any of the ceiling.

The reason is that Arsenal's opener is a defensive event as much as an attacking one, and their goals are spread. Gabriel projects 5.78 in Gameweek 1, more than every forward in the game except Haaland, and Raya 4.21. 13.1 per cent of managers own Gyökeres. The way into that fixture is the back line, which is where the defenders board landed last week too.

Šeško (£7.0m), Man Utd: the ceiling with a coin flip attached

Fixtures: Hull (A), Ipswich (H), Everton (A)

Šeško is the one genuine ceiling play in the position. If he starts at Hull he projects 5.77, which would be second only to Haaland among forwards. The Algorithm also gives him a 50.5 per cent chance of playing no minutes at all, which is why his actual Gameweek 1 figure is 2.85.

His FPL flag reads "Shin injury, 75 per cent chance of playing". Our own number is blunter than that, and it eases to 18.7 per cent by Gameweek 2, when United host Ipswich.

Verdict: a Gameweek 2 buy at 2.4 per cent owned, not a Gameweek 1 one.

What August hides: minutes, not motivation

Motivation is as flat in Gameweek 1 as it ever gets. Nobody is safe, nobody is doomed, nobody is on the beach, which is exactly why fixture quality and minutes do all the work in the opening month.

Minutes are the risk that actually moves, and pre-season there are no league minutes to read yet. Šeško's 50.5 per cent is the only availability figure on this page distinctive enough to quote on its own. For everyone else, treat the opening two gameweeks as evidence gathering and keep one transfer flexible.

FAQ

Is Haaland worth £15.5m in FPL 2026/27? On points yes, on value no. He projects 36.4 over the opening six, 10.4 clear of any other forward, and 2.35 points per million, the worst of the eight best-projected strikers. The question is whether your midfield survives him.

Who is the best cheap FPL forward for 2026/27? Calvert-Lewin at £6.0m, on 20.4 projected points and 3.40 per million. Igor Jesus at the same price projects 18.9 at 5.1 per cent owned if you want the same band with fewer neighbours.

Should I start Šeško in Gameweek 1? Not on these numbers. His ceiling is second only to Haaland's if he plays, but a 50.5 per cent chance of no minutes makes him a bench slot until United's Gameweek 2 home fixture.

Want the other fourteen picks rather than just the forward line? The Algorithm's Gameweek 1 squad is built and waiting, or get a free score on the squad you already have with Rate My Team.