FPL Fixture Difficulty: Every Fixture Is Two Fixtures

FPL fixture difficulty arrives as one colour on a ticker, and that one colour is being asked to answer two completely different questions. Whether a team is likely to score, and whether they are likely to keep a clean sheet, are not the same question, and in Gameweek 4 they do not give the same answer. Below is every club's Gameweek 4 read both ways, as of 5 September 2026.

Why one difficulty number cannot do the job

The ticker gives each club one rating per fixture, from 1 to 5. That single number then gets used to justify buying a striker and buying a defender, which are opposite bets.

A fixture against a leaky, dangerous opponent is a good week for your attackers and a bad one for your defenders. A fixture against a compact side who rarely score is the reverse. Squash both into one figure and you lose the only part that was useful.

The Algorithm rates every club's attack and defence separately, then reads each fixture in both directions: what this team is likely to score, and what they are likely to concede. Two numbers, two decisions. You can see the same thinking applied player by player on the free FPL predicted points table, and there is a fuller explanation of the approach in how The Algorithm works.

Gameweek 4, read both ways

Every club, sorted by expected goals, with their clean sheet chance alongside.

Where the two rankings disagree

Brighton are fourth in the round for attack at 1.95 expected goals and only seventh for clean sheets at 31.7 per cent. Their trip to Coventry is a fixture to attack, not a fixture to defend, and buying a Brighton defender off the back of it is reading the wrong column.

Man City are the sharper example. They are fifth in the round for attacking output at 1.78 and tenth for clean sheets at 23.6 per cent. Old Trafford is still a fine week to own City's forwards. It is a poor week to own their defence, and those two facts sit inside the fixture that most tickers will paint the same colour for both.

Spurs run the other way. They are eighth in the round for attack at 1.58 and fourth for clean sheets at 34.2 per cent. That is a defensive fixture wearing an ordinary attacking one.

Man Utd, meanwhile, are eleventh for attack at 1.45 but sixteenth for clean sheets at 16.9 per cent. The derby hurts their back line considerably more than it hurts their front.

The one fixture that is exactly what it looks like

Chelsea host Hull. Chelsea top the round at both ends, 2.45 expected goals and a 56.6 per cent clean sheet. Hull are bottom of the round at both ends, 0.57 and 8.7 per cent. No disagreement, no nuance, and the largest single gap in the gameweek.

Leeds against Newcastle is the opposite kind of fixture. Leeds read 1.42 and 24.8 per cent, Newcastle 1.40 and 24.2 per cent. It is the flattest fixture of the round in both directions, which is a real answer: there is no edge in it for either side, so spend your transfer elsewhere.

Runs beat weeks

One gameweek rarely justifies a move. The eight-round picture is where fixture difficulty earns its keep, and as it stands Arsenal average a 42.4 per cent clean sheet chance across Gameweeks 4 to 11, comfortably the best in the league. Chelsea are next at 35.4 per cent and Man City at 34.9 per cent, and then there is a real drop to Liverpool and Newcastle at 28.3 per cent.

At the other end, as it stands Hull average 17.1 per cent over the same run, Ipswich 19.0 and Sunderland 19.3. A cheap defender from any of those three is being bought on price alone.

This is also the honest way to time a chip. A wildcard is worth playing into a swing that lasts, not a single green square, and if the swing only covers one week then it is usually a free transfer question rather than a chip question.

One caveat worth stating plainly. In September, motivation is not yet a variable. Nobody is on the beach and nobody is safe, so the thing that actually moves a fixture read at this stage is rotation, which our numbers already carry.

Two picks this read produces

Lacroix (£6.0m) - Chelsea Fixtures: Hull (H), Brentford (A), Bournemouth (H)

He reads 4.64 expected points for Gameweek 4, behind only Gabriel's 5.66 among the 30 defenders on our six-gameweek board. He has played all 180 minutes so far for 7 points, which is the sort of quiet return that keeps ownership down. Just 8.3 per cent own him going into the best defensive fixture in the round.

Saka (£9.5m) - Arsenal Fixtures: Sunderland (A), Brighton (A), Leeds (H)

Arsenal at Sunderland is the third-best attacking fixture of the round at 2.04 expected goals against a side our numbers put at a 13.0 per cent clean sheet. Saka reads 5.71 for Gameweek 4 and has 20 points from 157 minutes. He is the top-projected midfielder in the game over the next six gameweeks and only 11.0 per cent own him, which is the widest gap between quality and ownership anywhere in the position.

FAQ

What is fixture difficulty in FPL? It is a rating of how hard each upcoming fixture is, shown on the official ticker as one number from 1 to 5 per fixture. The limitation is that one number cannot describe both attacking and defensive prospects, which is why we publish the two separately.

Is the FPL fixture ticker accurate? It is a reasonable first glance and a poor final answer. It cannot tell you that Brighton's trip to Coventry is a strong attacking fixture and a middling defensive one, which is exactly the distinction that decides which player you buy.

Which teams have the best fixtures in Gameweek 4? For attackers: Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. For clean sheets: Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, with Spurs fourth despite an ordinary attacking week.

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