FPL GW4 Preview: Why Minutes Beat Ceiling This Week

Gameweek 4 locks at 13:30 on Saturday 12 September, and the leading scorer in the game is currently a 75% chance to play.

That combination will cost more managers more points this week than any captain pick. A morning deadline means you get Thursday and Friday press conferences and then nothing. No late Friday reprieve, no Saturday lunchtime confirmation, no waiting to see a team sheet.

So this is the week to price minutes above upside. Below is who has actually been on the pitch, what The Algorithm makes of the round, and the three moves I would make before Saturday breakfast.

All projections are as of 10 September.

What a 13:30 deadline actually changes

Three gameweeks have been played, so every club has had 270 minutes available. That number is the most useful column in the game right now, because it separates the players a manager trusts from the players a manager rotates, and it does so without you having to guess.

Gabriel has played all 270. So have Tarkowski, B.Fernandes, Guéhi, Semenyo, Virgil, Groß and Maguire. Those are squad foundations, and in a week where you cannot react to news, foundations are worth a premium.

The other end of that column is where the damage happens. O'Reilly has 150 minutes of a possible 270. Konsa has 101. Calafiori, who nearly half the game owns, has 236.

None of that is a prediction. It is three weeks of evidence about who the manager actually picks, and it is the best protection available when the deadline beats the news.

Who is nailed, and who is not

Read the minutes column against the ownership column and the mispricing jumps out. The two most-owned names on that list are the two with a question attached, and the man with 268 of 270 minutes is owned by 3.3% of the game.

The armband call in GW4

Palmer leads the round on 6.3. Chelsea host Hull City, and our numbers give Chelsea 2.752 expected goals, the best attacking read in the round, against a Hull side whose clean-sheet chance at Stamford Bridge is 6.4%.

Behind him it is congested: Isak 5.9, Rogers 5.7, Gabriel 5.6, João Pedro 5.6, Haaland 5.6, Saka 5.5. Six names inside 0.8 of the lead is a coin toss, not an edge, and I would not spend a transfer to reach any of them.

Palmer if you own him. If you do not, Haaland is a fine hold, and this week the vice captain deserves more thought than usual, because a 13:30 deadline is exactly when a vice actually gets used.

Where the fixtures point in GW4

Arsenal at Sunderland is the best defensive fixture of the round at 52.5%, and Sunderland's expected goals at home reads 0.645. Arsenal also rank third for attacking output on 1.877, so treating an away trip as a downgrade is the mistake here.

Chelsea against Hull follow at 49.5%, then Liverpool at home to Fulham on 36.8% with 2.387 expected goals of their own. The drop after that is steep: Brighton and Crystal Palace read 32.9%, Spurs 32.5%.

Manchester United host Manchester City, and it reads as an open game rather than a procession. City's expected goals figure of 1.814 ranks fourth in the round and United's clean-sheet chance is 16.3%. Attackers yes, defenders no.

As it stands Arsenal carry the strongest defensive run of the eight gameweeks ahead at an average 45.8% a week, although the further out you look the more of that is still moving.

Three moves before Saturday

Gabriel (£8.0m), Arsenal

Fixtures: SUN (a), BHA (a), LEE (h), NFO (a), EVE (h)

This is the call against the template. Calafiori is £5.7m and 48.1% owned, and the crowd has bought the cheaper Arsenal defender rather than the safer one. Gabriel has 270 minutes to Calafiori's 236, and his chance of not starting reads 3.6% against Calafiori's 7.6%, which is the low end of the range against double it.

The projection agrees. Gabriel reads 5.6 this week and 43.2 across the eight ahead, second only to Haaland's 49.6 in the whole game. Calafiori reads 4.4 and 31.5.

Bottom line: 11.7 points of projection for £2.3m, in a slot most managers have already filled, and still only 24.5% own him.

Tarkowski (£6.0m), Everton

Fixtures: TOT (a), IPS (h), HUL (a), CHE (h), ARS (a)

Every minute of the season so far, 21 points, and 34.7 across the eight ahead. He is the definition of a player you can buy in a week where you cannot react.

Be honest about the timing though: this is his worst fixture of the run. Everton go to Spurs at a 20.8% clean-sheet chance and he reads 4.2. Gameweek 5 at home to Ipswich reads 5.4 on a 36.3% clean sheet.

Bottom line: buy him for the run rather than the round, and at 11.3% owned you are still early.

O'Reilly (£6.5m), Man City: the sell

Fixtures: MUN (a), SUN (h), LIV (a), IPS (h), AVL (a)

He is 14.4% owned, carrying a back problem at 75% to play, and has 150 of a possible 270 minutes. That is premium money for a defender the manager has not settled on, in a derby, with no chance to change your mind after 13:30.

Bottom line: the flag is the smaller problem. The minutes are the reason to move him on.

The differential: Tavernier at 3.3%

Tavernier (£6.0m), Bournemouth

Fixtures: BRE (h), LIV (h), CHE (a), SUN (h), MUN (a)

He has 21 points from 268 of a possible 270 minutes, so the role is not in doubt, and his 1.84 expected goal involvement says the returns are earned rather than lucky.

Bournemouth host Brentford with 1.580 expected goals. He reads 4.2 for the round and 31.2 across the eight.

Bottom line: a nailed £6.0m midfielder owned by 3.3% of the game is what a differential is supposed to look like.

The one I cannot solve for you

Gakpo leads the game on 28 points and carries a thigh problem at a 75% chance of playing. He is £7.2m and 14.0% owned.

There is no clever answer at a 13:30 deadline. Either you accept a one-in-four chance of a blank from an in-form asset, or you field someone else and give up the upside. What you should not do is leave him as captain or vice and hope.

FAQ

What time is the GW4 deadline?

13:30 UK on Saturday 12 September. It is a morning deadline, so Thursday and Friday press conferences are all the team news you get.

Should I sell Gakpo because of the flag?

Not on the flag alone at 75%. Bench him if you have a playing alternative, and only sell if the move improves your squad for the eight ahead anyway.

Is it worth a hit to bring Gabriel in?

Not for one week, where he beats Calafiori by 1.2. Across the eight the gap is 11.7, so if the move was coming anyway, a hit pays itself back inside a month.

Check your own eleven before Saturday with our free FPL squad rating, or read every player's projection for the next eight gameweeks. For the logic behind the Tavernier call, how to pick a differential that pays sets out the test, and last week's review covers where we got Gameweek 3 right and wrong.