FPL GW5 Preview: Six Clean Sheets Over 34%

Gameweek 5 locks at 18:30 UK tonight, and the cheapest points in it are at the back.

Six clubs read a 34.5% chance of a clean sheet or better this week. That is a lot for one round, and the defenders attached to those numbers are owned by a fraction of the game.

All projections below are as of 18 September.

Which defences should I target in gameweek 5?

The Algorithm has Man City at 49.8% at home to Sunderland, Forest at 40.2% at home to Coventry, Arsenal at 36.7% at Brighton, Leeds at 35.4%, Newcastle at 35.1% and Everton at 34.5% at home to Ipswich.

Below that it drops away fast. Spurs are 32.2% and Man Utd 25.9%, and no other club in the round clears a one in four chance.

The useful part is the second week. Arsenal go from 36.7% to 55.2% at home to Leeds in GW6, and Everton hold 33.6% at Hull. City go the other way, falling to 23.6% at Liverpool. A defensive buy is a two-week decision, so buy the pair, not the single.

The armband first, because it is not close

Haaland (£15.6m), Man City. 6.8 for GW5, and 48.6 across the eight gameweeks, the best total of any player in the game.

The gap to second is 1.1 points, which is wide. Gibbs-White reads 5.8, B.Fernandes 5.7, Semenyo 5.4. I am not going to pretend this is a coin toss.

One caveat worth holding: he falls to 4.9 in GW6 at Liverpool, so this is a week to use him rather than a week to pay a hit for him.

Three defensive transfer calls

Tarkowski (£6.1m), Everton. 14.0% owned. 5.3 for GW5 and 5.2 in GW6, on 29 points from all 360 minutes.

Fixtures: Ipswich (h), then Hull (a). 34.5% and 33.6%, the steadiest pair on the board at the price.

The flaw: 0.20 expected goal involvement, so there is no attacking floor under him. He is clean sheets and defensive contribution, nothing else, and GW8 at Arsenal reads 9.8%.

Bottom line: the best defensive buy in the round, and only 14.0% of the game owns him.

Gabriel (£8.0m), Arsenal. 23.2% owned. 5.0 for GW5, 5.4 in GW6, and 40.5 across the eight gameweeks, the best of any defender in the game.

This is where I disagree with the template. Half the game, 50.2%, owns Calafiori at £5.8m, and he does not appear in our top 30 for GW5 at all. Arsenal's 36.7% then 55.2% pair is the best two-week run any defence has, and the cheap route into that defence is not the one capturing it.

The flaw is the price. £8.0m for a defender is the second most expensive route on this list and it only pays if the clean sheets land.

Bottom line: if you own one Arsenal defender, I would rather it was the £8.0m one at 23.2% owned than the £5.8m one at 50.2%.

N.Williams (£5.0m), Nott'm Forest. 9.0% owned, 4.2 for GW5, 17 points from all 360 minutes.

Forest at home to Coventry is the round's second-best clean sheet at 40.2%, and this is the cheapest way into it.

The flaw: 3.5 in GW6 and 26.6 over the eight gameweeks, so he is a squad filler with a good fortnight, not an upgrade you keep until Christmas.

The gameweek 5 differential under 10% owned

Murillo (£5.5m), Nott'm Forest. 2.1% owned, 4.7 for GW5, on 19 points from 359 of 360 minutes.

Same 40.2% clean sheet as his teammate above, half a point better on the projection, and owned by one manager in fifty.

The flaws, named properly. His expected goal involvement is 0.64, so he needs the clean sheet to pay. His eight-gameweek total is 28.6, which is modest. And as it stands GW7 against Arsenal is his trough. Milenković is out with a hamstring until 11 October, which is part of why a Forest clean sheet is not a free bet at the back.

Bottom line: the best value on this list, and at 2.1% owned it is a real differential rather than a fashionable one.

Read the last two rows carefully. City carry the round's best clean sheet by a distance, and both of their defenders collapse to 2.9 next week. If you buy one today you are buying a single fixture, which is fine as long as you know that is what you are doing.

Branthwaite is the same Everton bet as Tarkowski for £0.6m less, 4.6 and 4.5, at 2.2% owned. Mykolenko at £4.5m has 22 points from every available minute if you need the cheapest body in that defence.

Availability risks before 18:30

João Pedro of Chelsea is flagged at a 75% chance of playing, and 72.2% of the game owns him. His projection has already absorbed the doubt: 3.1 for GW5, with a 29.1% chance of no minutes. Hold him, do not captain him, and recheck before the lock. Armstrong of Everton carries the same 75% flag.

The one nobody talks about: 17.6% own Dubravka of Spurs, who has played zero minutes in four rounds. A £4.0m keeper with no minutes is a wasted slot, not a saving.

FAQ

Is a City defender worth it for one week? Only with a spare free transfer. Guéhi 4.4 and Gvardiol 4.3 are the best single-week reads on the board, and both are 2.9 in GW6.

Is it worth a hit for Gabriel? No. He is 5.0 this week. A four-point hit wipes out the fixture you are buying, and his value is the eight-gameweek total of 40.5, which is still there next week.

Cheap defence or premium defence? Both, from different clubs. Pair one premium on the best clean-sheet run with one sub-£5.5m body on a good fortnight, and keep the money in your attack.

Every projection here is free to check on our FPL predicted points table, and Rate My Team scores your own squad with no signup. For last round's marks, including the call we got wrong, the GW4 review is worth five minutes, and how to pick a differential covers the thinking behind the Murillo call.

Verdict: captain Haaland, and spend your transfer on a defence with two good weeks rather than one great one. Tarkowski at 14.0% owned is the buy, Murillo at 2.1% is the differential, and a City defender is a one-week rental you should price as such. If you want The Algorithm to plan your own next eight gameweeks, FPL Pro Coach at £10 a month is the only tier with the 14-day free trial: start one here.