FPL GW9 Review: The Seven-Point Hold Miss

Our GW9 advice to hold Calvert-Lewin lost its opening week. He returned two points; Thiago returned nine. For that starting forward slot, before hits or other changes, the hold finished seven points behind the switch we advised against.

That miss belongs beside the successful Van Hecke call. So does the captaincy defeat: Haaland scored two while Palmer returned eight and Rogers nine. The Algorithm’s GW9 review starts with the decisions that hurt, not just the names that hauled.

GW9 is finished and data-checked. Historical forecasts below are the 30 October figures quoted in our pre-deadline preview, covering GW9–16. Current prices, ownership and GW10–17 forecasts were checked on 3 November 2026. The two windows are different; forecast gaps use unrounded figures.

What did our GW9 preview get wrong?

The published GW9 preview preferred Thiago to Jackson for an affordable João Pedro replacement, while advising existing Calvert-Lewin owners to hold.

Here is the complete set of player forecasts quoted in that comparison, captaincy and defensive call:

Thiago scored and took three bonus points against Forest. Jackson did the same against Fulham. Paying the extra £1.0m for Thiago at the prices quoted in the preview bought no additional GW9 points. The eight-gameweek comparison remains unfinished; its first result was a tie.

Calvert-Lewin’s hold was a clearer loss. Even a four-point hit for the isolated switch to Thiago would have finished three points ahead this week, assuming both occupied that starting slot. That is the result, not a claim that every manager should have taken the hit beforehand.

How much did the captaincy call cost?

Haaland played all 90 minutes in City’s 1-0 defeat to Brighton. This was a playing captain’s blank, so the vice-captain did not take over.

If you owned and started both Haaland and Palmer, captaining Palmer instead would have added six points to your team. The extra captain copy changes from Haaland’s two to Palmer’s eight. The equivalent gain with Rogers was seven.

That is different from subtracting their doubled captain returns and calling the difference every manager’s loss. Their ordinary player points already belong in the same XI.

Palmer also took and scored Chelsea’s league penalty. Rogers scoring one in the cup while Palmer was suspended had not established a change of penalty taker; the preview’s warning on that point held up.

The receipts: what did members’ pre-deadline plans choose?

The Algorithm recommended Haaland as captain in 77% of GW9 plans and Palmer in 22%. That captaincy preference lost the round.

Barry was the most-recommended incoming player, appearing in 51% of plans. These were recommendations for members’ existing squads, not a universal instruction to buy the same player.

The five most-frequent named switches returned:

Those are individual player returns before hits, captaincy, substitutes and other moves. João Pedro’s zero, for example, is not necessarily zero for the team if a substitute would have replaced him. These receipts cannot establish every member’s whole-team result.

Did the defensive call justify a transfer?

Van Hecke delivered 15 points through a goal, a clean sheet and three bonus points. De Cuyper returned nine, including an assist and a clean sheet at City. The lower forecast did not make De Cuyper a failed holding.

Our preferred new purchase won that direct comparison by six points. Our advice against a four-point switch lost the isolated GW9 counterfactual by two. Bench cover and other transfers still determine whether that was the right move for a particular squad.

I would not turn either haul into a new automatic buy. Van Hecke now costs £5.0m at 11.1% ownership, with 53 points from all 810 league minutes. He visits Leeds next and projects 3.6 xP, then 29.2 across GW10–17. That is a different immediate proposition from Palace at home.

Should Calvert-Lewin owners sell before GW10?

I would still assess the full change rather than buy back the seven points already lost.

Leeds’ £6.1m forward is 20.8% owned, with 37 points from 773 minutes. Spurs visit next. His current forecast is 4.7 xP for GW10 and 33.6 across the next eight gameweeks.

Thiago, Brentford’s £7.8m forward, is 9.2% owned, with 32 points from 802 minutes. At Brighton he projects 4.1, then 32.0 across GW10–17. He remains on four league bookings, one away from a one-match ban.

The fresh eight-gameweek forecast still favours Calvert-Lewin, now by 1.7 xP, at £1.7m less. That supports holding when the rest of your team works. It does not erase the seven-point GW9 miss or guarantee the remaining returns.

GW9 review questions

Did Thiago beat Jackson?

No. Both returned nine. Jackson achieved that at the £1.0m lower purchase price quoted before the deadline.

Did the Van Hecke hit pay off?

Against a starting De Cuyper, the six-point player gain covered four and left two in GW9. That is an isolated comparison, not a whole-squad verdict.

When is the GW10 deadline?

Friday 6 November at 18:30 UK time, which is 19:30 in Tirana.

Compare the current eight-gameweek predicted points, then test the complete moves in the free team planner. Record the loss honestly; make the next transfer earn its place from here.